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Ted Kennedy's Senate seat is now up for grabs, and the leading contenders are Democrat Martha Coakley (currently the state Attorney General) and Republican Scott Brown (currently a State Senator). In a state with an overwhelming Democratic advantage in voter registration, this should be the proverbial slam dunk for the Dems. However, a lackluster campaign by the Democratic nominee and the success of the Republican nominee in presenting himself as a conservative in moderate clothing have made the race tighter than anyone had reason to expect, with the candidates running neck-and-neck according to a recent Rasmussen poll. If Scott Brown manages to pull off a stunning upset in the January 19 special election, the ramifications will be significant on a national scale: 1. Galvanize the GOP Nationally -- The symbolic value of a conservative Republican taking the seat held for decades by arch enemy Ted Kennedy in a historically Democratic state would be earth shattering. It would open the conservative fundraising spigots and pump steroids into the GOP base less than two years after it was on the ropes in the wake of the 2008 election. 2. Democratic Policy Initiatives Instantly at Risk -- Health care reform isn't the only policy initiative that instantly would be at grave risk. Judicial and presidential appointments requiring Senate confirmation, not to mention reforms in environmental, financial, and labor policy, also would be on the chopping block. 3. 2010 Midterm Elections -- Republican prospects in dozens of seats in close House and Senate races across the country suddenly would be vastly improved. "If Scott Brown can win in Massachusetts, then why can't Joe the Plumber win in Iowa/Florida/Oregon/California?" 4. Loss of Bay State Influence in Washington -- A first-term, conservative Republican senator will not have much clout in Washington at a time when the White House and both houses of Congress are held by Democrats. His ability to bring home funding and programs will be very, very limited. In sum, a Brown victory would buoy the Republicans nationally, while substracting clout from the Massachusetts congressional delegation. Though we cannot discount gender as an everpresent factor when it comes to breaking glass (or opaque) ceilings in the good ol' boy world of Massachusetts politics, the failings of the Coakley campaign are largely responsible for this unfolding scenario. That said, we liberals who have been critical of the Democratic nominee simply have to get over it. The stakes go well beyond an individual candidacy. My prognostication is that Scott Brown may have peaked a week too early. His surge in the polls came in time for the Democrats to sound the alarm bells to rescue this campaign and to get their voters to the polls. But this result cannot be taken for granted. If you vote in Massachusetts, the choice is clear. If you know people in Massachusetts, urge them to consider the consequences of a GOP takeover of Ted Kennedy's Senate seat. David Yamada Comments
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Tip O'Neill famously observed that all politics is local. Well, in the late Speaker's home state, a local race suddenly has become one of national significance.